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Thread: The future of being a "car guy"

  1. #81
    RaceTape Ninja Force McCocken's Avatar
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    There's a chicken and egg component to EVs that's been lightly discussed; infrastructure. I see little in terms of city planning and civil engineering that applies the requirements of autonomous vehicles and EV needs. Atlanta is now about where California was 10 years ago. It's a commuter city with comparable traffic. The mass transit systems get tied down to socio-economic BS. I think the key here is a lot of automakers are taking steps to develop autonomous systems with the current planning and infrastructure. The tipping point, to me, will be when that changes, much like when our road systems began to develop to accommodate the increasing use of the automobile.
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    Senior Member ayon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatbillybob View Post
    I'm for the extra complexity and extra potential breakdown of 2 hybrid linked systems if it gives me more F1 style power and torque. I'm not interested in saving the planet and I'm not interested in 20% or whatever fuel economy. As a racer I'm a waster so.... I also believe:
    In a 2006 United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization report, it claims that the livestock sector, most of which are cows, “generates more greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalent – 18 percent – than transport.”
    Livestock is the largest source of methane gas emissions worldwide, contributing over 28 percent of total emissions. Wetlands, leaks from oil refineries and drills, and landfills also contribute methane gas to the atmosphere. In fact, unlike the ratios on a global scale, in the United States livestock is only the third largest contributor, behind the mining and transportation of natural gas and rotting landfill waste.

    I'm not opposed to doing more the save the planet but I hate saving the planet being shoved down my throat.
    Then Old George says a lot of right:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c

    The figure is thought to be more like half that in more recent and complete studies
    FAO -Â*News Article:Â*Key facts and findings

    But is still bad news. The vegan crowd (I live in Marin and work in San fran now) love to qoute that one. I'm more a chicken and eggs type. Mostly everyone hates things shoved down our throats which is why I'm glad the problem is being tackled now vs 50 years from now.
    The argument there would be the throat stretch would be a lot more severe and detrimental to our car guy culture. That being said I hate being preached to buy someone too far left or right but I don't think this should be a political issue either.
    Albert Einstein: "Nothing will benefit human health and increase chances for survival of life on Earth as much as the evolution to a vegetarian diet"............ I can't do vegan and EV is alot easier on the throat than ICE when it comes to day to day car use.

  3. #83
    Senior Member ayon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ucfbrett View Post
    And most track guys I know don't have EVs. That's a subjective point on both our parts, so it's not really relevant.
    I would agree that most track guys I know don't have an EV. It might be interesting to see how many on Trackhq do though, through a poll if there hasnt already been one.

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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ayon View Post
    I would agree that most track guys I know don't have an EV. It might be interesting to see how many on Trackhq do though, through a poll if there hasnt already been one.
    they are just hiding the fact..... track guys all macho, bragging about their v8. no one talks about their daily.......
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    Senior Member fatbillybob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ayon View Post
    Albert Einstein: "Nothing will benefit human health and increase chances for survival of life on Earth as much as the evolution to a vegetarian diet"........
    As a scientist I have respect for Einstein but he should stick to physics. Humans are apex predators and omnivores. We have the teeth to prove it. I'm no far left hypocrite. I'm one with "nature" using my "natural" talents to try and conquer it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatbillybob View Post
    As a scientist I have respect for Einstein but he should stick to physics. Humans are apex predators and omnivores. We have the teeth to prove it. I'm no far left hypocrite. I'm one with "nature" using my "natural" talents to try and conquer it.
    Well, he said "evolution to a vegetarian diet". He is really just confirming that we are NOT vegetarians yet. So at least you agree on that.
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    The Real Captain Slow Red_5's Avatar
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    I'm pretty liberal and environmentally conscious but if this forum becomes a vegan / EV forum, I'm out.
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    manualmatic noob a96autocamry's Avatar
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    Saw this on another forum, thought I'd share it here

    https://www.economist.com/news/leade...ed-world-death

    Originally Posted by The Economist
    “HUMAN inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.

    The Big End

    But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead (see Briefing). In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars, powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.
    The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.

    To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle, America’s car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.

    But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong, the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While today’s carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin, mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.

    Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. Electric propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could mean that ownership is largely replaced by “transport as a service”, in which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks (up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.

    Even without a shift to safe, self-driving vehicles, electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local air pollution will fall, too. The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk, with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in traffic accidents.

    Autos and autocracies

    And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially in new, high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast, producers such as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East will still matter, but a lot less than it did. Although there will still be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse, the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.

    Meanwhile, a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from $4,000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14,000. Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars: utilities want giant batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia? Not exactly, because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion batteries from cars can be reused in power grids, and then recycled.

    The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.

    Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.
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    Master of Disaster SteveLevin's Avatar
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    Of course the 8,000,000 pound elephant in the room is "when will someone build EV's profitably?" Sure, you can argue that things like the Gigafactory aren't really vehicle costs but infrastructure, but in a lot of ways that would be no different that Ford saying "if we just discount the cost of the assembly line and tooling, then the profit per vehicle is much higher."

    Tesla, for example, will be no less than $15 billion dollars in cost to reach breakeven, and at that point they will not have done a model refresh on the Model S and X in years.

    And that's assuming Elon Musk's current projections are on target. (Keep in mind, that with regards to Tesla, his projections currently have a 0% level of accuracy)

    Don't get me wrong, I loved my Volt. But I think the calls of the death of ICE are greatly exaggerated.

    But let's hope the EV+autonomous vehicle hype (especially for Apple) stays strong for the next few months until I sell my house (which is located 7 minutes from Apple Park and 5 minutes from Project Titan)

    Steve
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    BMW Master bawareca's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveLevin View Post
    But let's hope the EV+autonomous vehicle hype (especially for Apple) stays strong for the next few months until I sell my house (which is located 7 minutes from Apple Park and 5 minutes from Project Titan)

    Steve
    I hear the houses in Norcal sell in minutes nowadays. Possibly because they are close to many great tracks
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    Senior Member Silversprint's Avatar
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    When someone builds an EV that I can drive from Temecula to willow springs on a Saturday morning. Do a full track day. Then drive home in the evening. It will then be as practical as an ICE car.

    Sure I can drive an EV to work and buy a separate track car but many track day enthusiasts track their daily driver. The death of ICE might mean the end of many track day organizations.
    Last edited by Silversprint; 08-11-2017 at 10:51 AM.
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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silversprint View Post
    When someone builds an EV that I can drive from Temecula to willow springs on a Saturday morning. Do a full track day. Then drive home in the evening. It will then be as practical as an ICE car.
    yeap, EV can't do track duty, that I admit. but don't make it sound like it is so easy with ICE either.

    if I take my Evo 9 (small ass tank) to track from Temecula.

    1. need to get fuel when I wake up (or a night before), pay $30
    2. need to get fuel somewhere in Palmdale, pay $30
    3. at noon, after 2-3 sessions, get fuel at WSIR track, paying $8 per gallon. pay $80
    4. at end of day, get fuel at Chevron at Rosamond., pay $30
    5. get fuel somewhere in Ontario. pay $30
    6. by the time, I get home to Temecula, 1/2 tank left. need fuel again next morning. pay $15

    edit: if I convert my Evo to E85 (like 80% of them), add 4 more stops.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tesla S, while can't do track duty (won't do 1 lap without overheating motor), but if you are in a beginner, low intermediate group, it works like this:

    1. wake up in the morning. car is fully charged. drive to Buttonwillow. plug the car into supercharger (free), get coffee at Starbucks (next to charging) and breakfast. go to bathroom, 20 minutes to be fully charged.
    2. when track day is over, drive to Buttonwillow. plug the car into supercharger (free). goto bathroom, grab a sandwich from Subway (next to charging). you only need to charge 10 minutes, because you just need enough to make it home (200 miles).
    3. drive home. car will be fully charged by the morning. (or if you are cheap, charge it up at Supercharger at Temecula, free)
    Last edited by bellwilliam; 08-11-2017 at 10:51 AM.
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    Administrator ucfbrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bellwilliam View Post
    yeap, EV can't do track duty. They use up energy more than (proportionally) ICE when pushed hard, but don't make it sound like it is so easy with ICE either.

    if I take my Evo 9 (small ass tank) to track from Temecula.

    1. need to get fuel when I wake up (or a night before)
    2. need to get fuel somewhere in Palmdale
    3. at noon, after 2-3 sessions, get fuel at WSIR track, paying $8 per gallon.
    4. at end of day, get fuel at Chevron at Rosamond.
    5. get fuel somewhere in Ontario.
    6. by the time, I get home to Temecula, 1/2 tank left. need fuel again next morning.

    edit: if I convert my Evo to E85 (like 80% of them), add 4 more stops.
    Yes, but it runs all day without protest. Jump to 16:51


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    Senior Member Silversprint's Avatar
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    It's possible just not there yet. The benchmark for me is Toyota. Toyota is projected to release a full electric Vehicle in 2022 with solid state battery technology that can charge in just a few minutes and travel longer.
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    BMW Master bawareca's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silversprint View Post
    It's possible just not there yet. The benchmark for me is Toyota. Toyota is projected to release a full electric Vehicle in 2022 with solid state battery technology that can charge in just a few minutes and travel longer.
    For us to make it all the way to 2022 first someone has to take care of the kim jon un, and i guess a few others of his caliber that will show-up at a later dates
    But seriously, to state in 2017 that first brand's electric car is planned for 2022 sounds....sorry, i have no correct description for this. By that time there are huge chances that no ICE cars are manufactured anymore, there is no need for cars anymore, the electric cars have 500+ mile range, toyota does not exist anymore and everything in between

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    Senior Member Silversprint's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bawareca View Post
    For us to make it all the way to 2022 first someone has to take care of the kim jon un, and i guess a few others of his caliber that will show-up at a later dates
    But seriously, to state in 2017 that first brand's electric car is planned for 2022 sounds....sorry, i have no correct description for this. By that time there are huge chances that no ICE cars are manufactured anymore, there is no need for cars anymore, the electric cars have 500+ mile range, toyota does not exist anymore and everything in between
    Toyota doesn't want and has never needed to build EVs. They have always promoted hybrids as more practical and Hydrogen as the future.

    However China EV requirement will force all manufacturers to build EVs if they want to sell cars in China. After next year China will require that at least 8% of each manufacturers cars produced are electric. It will start a new EV revolution. Eight percent is a lot of electric cars for a company like Toyota. China is now the largest automotive market in the world.

    In Shanghai, you have to pay around 15,000 U.S. dollars for a license plate, and that's IF you win one in a lottery. If you buy a plug-in hybrid, the city will give you a free license plate, just like that.
    Last edited by Silversprint; 08-11-2017 at 05:37 PM.
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    Chest hair required Olitho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silversprint View Post
    In Shanghai, you have to pay around 15,000 U.S. dollars for a license plate, and that's IF you win one in a lottery. If you buy a plug-in hybrid, the city will give you a free license plate, just like that.
    Wow! Now I know where the term "Getting Shanghai'd" comes from.....
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    Master of Disaster SteveLevin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bawareca View Post
    I hear the houses in Norcal sell in minutes nowadays. Possibly because they are close to many great tracks
    Well, that's a slight exaggeration...although the last home in my neighborhood to go on the market sold in 3 days with a 15 day close.

    Steve
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