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Thread: The future of being a "car guy"

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    Master of Disaster SteveLevin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bellwilliam View Post
    I will explain to you oil huggers about range: say you have a 240 miles Tesla S. think about it, when was the last time you traveled more than 200 miles in a day that's NOT an out of town trip ? Tesla S will cover 99-100% of your in town need.
    As a matter of curiosity, have you taken the Tesla into colder climes where you have to run a lot of heater? If so, you much does that impact it? And a/c is included in the Tesla number?

    Don't get me wrong, I like EV's for a lot of things. I wouldn't mind picking up a used Model S (which I think comes with a 4 year warranty, so a heck of a deal) if it weren't for space and, well, AWD.

    One of the concerns I think people have isn't if you plug it in every day, but what happens if you forget to plug it in? With a ICE, you forget to get gas last night, you can get it in the morning. But unless you have a supercharger at home, if you remember in the morning you didn't plug the car in, you can't just leave 15 minutes early to top up the tank.

    Steve

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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveLevin View Post
    As a matter of curiosity, have you taken the Tesla into colder climes where you have to run a lot of heater? If so, you much does that impact it? And a/c is included in the Tesla number?
    Steve
    I live at Inland Empire in SOCAL, so AC is on 100% of the time. I've never ran a lot of heater, just here and there.

    my S is 250 mile range. I've ran as low as 160 miles on 100MPH cruise control, as high as 290 miles in traffic.

    #1 problem with Tesla is build quality. Panel gap is seriously Yugo like. panel fit is GT350 like. 2 cars I happen to own is way way down there in panel fitment.
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    Senior Member bikeindirt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ETK View Post
    Also, what is usually overlooked and I can't figure out why: what about the benefit of never having to visit a gas station or a charger for any of those 99% of trips? I don't have an ev yet (on the list for Model 3 though), but it seems like the ability to charge at home saves many many hours of time and inconvenience . . .
    This... exactly...
    everytime I get in, I can drive >200... never have to think about it. opposite of range anxiety.

    BID

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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    the future is here....at least for illegal street racing scene...
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    Senior Member bikeindirt's Avatar
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    Don't know much about drag-racing (or teslas) but basically a stock car + sticky tires (-) everything you can unbolt?

    anyone hacking the software or ghosting the sensors?

    BID

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    Administrator ucfbrett's Avatar
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    Wow, so much interesting discussion going on here. I was out of pocket the last two days, so I'll enter and focus on what Emilio was asking, but all of what follows is pure conjecture, some real crystal-ball prognostication:

    In five years, the automotive industry won't be that much different, but in 10 years, it might look a lot like what people expect in five years. There must be a great advance in battery technology before the masses will begin adopting electric cars.

    My wife always gets the new cars in our household and we've begun looking, and looking at electrics and plug-in hybrids. The short answer is we won't be leasing either because they're all too expensive, lack range or just look funny. There isn't enough choice currently. My wife still likes good looking cars, and I've long held that hybrids and EVs will sell when A) the technology is "there," i.e. when range is comparable to that of an ICE-powered car and when recharges take the same amount of time as filling up a tank, and when there are more recharging stations available, and; B) when they look like regular cars. Until that point, people will buy what is more convenient to them.

    As for autonomous vehicles, they're doable with ICE, but my guess is manufacturers won't want to bother.

    That brings us to the truck market, which represents, if memory serves, somewhere around 45 percent of the U.S. car market. These vehicles have not seen any successful application of new technology like electric assist or parallel or series hybrid power. The truck market is what will keep the ICE alive over the next few decades because alternative propulsion systems can't do what they do without melting into a puddle of copper and plastic.

    Enthusiast vehicles in the long run, in my opinion, won't come from the likes of GM, Ferrari and BMW, et al. They'll come from Riley, Polaris, Palatov, Elan, and other small builders who only make track cars. They will be treated and marketed like, as Anthony Bedegi pointed out, horses. And everyone who has a horse needs a truck and trailer.

    When EV technology advances and begins to take hold, gasoline demand will fall, which in theory will cause a drop in price. Fuel taxes pay for roads and maintenance, so that will usher in other problems. Gasoline taxes pay for a lot of infrastructure. Finding a replacement for that municipal revenue won't be easy, politically or even logistically. Odds are good charging stations won't be free and there will be a tax on the juice.

    At present, there is a worldwide glut of oil, so prices in the near term should be stable, barring unforeseen conflicts. We have plenty of reserves and demand is falling as is. If we see new advances in power generation such as nuclear fusion, which was just carried out on a small scale in a lab in Britain, we will see a reduced demand for natural gas and coal, which needs to go away anyway.

    If or when those technologies depress the demand for fossil fuels to the point where it's no longer profitable to frack and access difficult deposits, then prices likely will spike. Profitable extraction will remain viable in places where oil is easy to get at, like the deposits in the Middle East. Shallow deposits on flat land. Ocean drilling will be the first to cease to be profitable, then fracking.

    Track days and amateur racing will be OK in the near term, over the next couple of decades, because of how much fun they are. Anyone who does it once usually wants to do it again. Bring a friend. Share the love. It strikes me that this is what Track Night in America is about. Racing will continue. In the future, it likely will be in cars that are made in much smaller volumes for the enthusiasts who want them, which brings us to the aftermarket that serves the enthusiast market.

    The automotive aftermarket won't be what we love and enjoy today, I'm afraid. I think people will still want things to personalize their cars, wheels being one key item. Aluminum intakes? Cams? Cranks? Rods? Pistons? There will be an aftermarket, but it will be smaller. Larger companies will buy smaller ones and consolidate many product categories under large "umbrellas" to remain viable entities.

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    ^^^ You push stocks for a living or what?
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    Administrator ucfbrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johns_EvoIXSE View Post
    ^^^ You push stocks for a living or what?
    Nope. Just an avid reader of lots of different things, newspapers, Kiplinger, Brookings, etc.

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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Brenda you are wrong on this. It is moving a lot faster than you think. Most Track guys I know own an EV. It seems most Trackhq'ers own one too. We are at a point that I don't see negatives with EV any more. EV with 200+ mile range are being released in droves. Around 10 models by 2018. Over 50 by 2020.

    Heck, I am typing this in a Tesla lounge at their Hawthorne charging (free) station. Waiting to pick up my wife from Lax 10 minutes away.
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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    I also don't understand the pushback from track guys. ALL EV handles better than their counterpart, lower CG, better weight distribution, instant throttle response. This is what track guys love !!
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    What is the price of an EV without government incentives. If you remove tax credits pretty much all of them are too expensive for what you get.

    A Toyota prius starts at $23k and gets 58 mpg city. Can Chevy sell a volt for $10k more without the government incentives?

    Aside from Tesla, EVs have some of the worse resale values on the market. If there were no tax incentives they would have a very difficult time in today's market.

    My house is solar powered. I make more electricity than I use. An EV would make sense for me. However except for tesla all the EVS are small, weird looking, or simply don't have the range for occasional work commute.

    Economics drive change. Until buyers want and demand something different car companies will continue to make gas powered suvs.

    We don't live in Paris or London, cities which has already set dates for banning gasoline/diesel cars.
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    Master of Disaster SteveLevin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silversprint View Post
    We don't live in Paris or London, cities which has already set dates for banning gasoline/diesel cars.
    They also generally have much less need of range. So they can be more draconian/have cars with smaller batteries.

    Years ago, we often drove from Frankfurt to Amsterdam to catch our flight because flying it was a pain and for two people rarely less than the 250 euro Hertz surcharge plus fuel. After all, it was only 400km or so.

    But I tell you, the number of Europeans that would hear this and say "you crazy Americans" was astounding. It was like we were Lindbergh crossing the Atlantic.

    Steve

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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silversprint View Post
    What is the price of an EV without government incentives. If you remove tax credits pretty much all of them are too expensive for what you get.

    A Toyota prius starts at $23k and gets 58 mpg city. Can Chevy sell a volt for $10k more without the government incentives?

    Aside from Tesla, EVs have some of the worse resale values on the market. If there were no tax incentives they would have a very difficult time in today's market.

    My house is solar powered. I make more electricity than I use. An EV would make sense for me. However except for tesla all the EVS are small, weird looking, or simply don't have the range for occasional work commute.

    Economics drive change. Until buyers want and demand something different car companies will continue to make gas powered suvs.

    We don't live in Paris or London, cities which has already set dates for banning gasoline/diesel cars.
    I will try to answer that. Volt would be around $29k today without incentive. So about $6k more than Prius. It your case (solar roof), I do believe it makes more sense than a Prius if you have a commute like most people. But I am not crazy about Volt. 2 systems in 1 car is a compromise.

    I see EV different from others. I am willing to pay more for an EV because they handle better than their counterpart. For that, I'm willing to pay a premium.

    You are also looking back, as you only see 1 car (model S) that fits your need now. Look forward 2 years, there will be more than 20 models with 200+ miles range. Probably a lot more. The reason for EV to have bad resale is because technology is advancing fast. EV landscape will change drastically in just few years.

    EV is also cheaper to operate. Not many item to go wrong. Lot less parts.

    Say a 2018 Model 3 (with optional battery, 300 mile range), is about $50k before incentive or $40k after incentive. Tell me another sedan in the same class that will handle or accelerate harder than a 3 ? Model 3 has 300 miles range, mid engine, instant torque, low CG, more reliable (less parts), quieter (no engine), a frunk and a trunk for cargo capacity. Don't tell me that 3 series, C class or A4 could possibly be even close.

    Yes, Model 3 will have crappy panel fit. But that's a Tesla thing, not an EV thing.
    Last edited by bellwilliam; 08-10-2017 at 12:41 AM.
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    Senior Member ayon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuntman View Post
    And please quantify the pollution produced from making those batteries and electricity?

    I do feel hybrids have a lot of merit -recouping wasted braking energy and assisting in the most inefficient aspect of an ICE motor -acceleration from a stop.
    Its almost like they tailored this article Just for you, what with the gt350r comment in the end.

    Tesla Battery Emissions Study - Carbon Emissions From Making EV Batteries

    Right now we still need to emit carbon dioxide to produce batteries, albeit alot less then ones peer group might have you believe. That being said the process is being cleaned up year over year and that takes money.

    https://www.theverge.com/2017/1/11/1...op-70-megawatt

    That money right now is coming from the " hypocrital mess" you mention earlier through your tax dollars, gov subsidies, rebates and tax incentives making it attractive for people like bikeindirt and for the people who do care but don't have the money.

    Yes this process of technology catching up takes time and the above mess is intending to speed up the process. Running the risk of getting too political on a car guy forum, some don't believe we have that much time.
    I also share the opinion that hybrid tech is the perfect lube between full ICE and pure electric. It's something that manufacturers can do right now to help out without the massive risk and investment it is taking to get EV off the ground and mainstream.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ayon View Post
    I also share the opinion that hybrid tech is the perfect lube between full ICE and pure electric. It's something that manufacturers can do right now to help out without the massive risk and investment it is taking to get EV off the ground and mainstream.
    I'm for the extra complexity and extra potential breakdown of 2 hybrid linked systems if it gives me more F1 style power and torque. I'm not interested in saving the planet and I'm not interested in 20% or whatever fuel economy. As a racer I'm a waster so.... I also believe:
    In a 2006 United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization report, it claims that the livestock sector, most of which are cows, “generates more greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalent – 18 percent – than transport.”
    Livestock is the largest source of methane gas emissions worldwide, contributing over 28 percent of total emissions. Wetlands, leaks from oil refineries and drills, and landfills also contribute methane gas to the atmosphere. In fact, unlike the ratios on a global scale, in the United States livestock is only the third largest contributor, behind the mining and transportation of natural gas and rotting landfill waste.

    I'm not opposed to doing more the save the planet but I hate saving the planet being shoved down my throat.
    Then Old George says a lot of right:
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    I think the best thing about an EV future is less noise. A continual threat to our hobby is the Laguna Seca syndrome where a small minority ruin life for the majority who don't care. If the EV's are quiet, don't smell, and save the planet maybe the "fun police" will go bug someone else.
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    Quote Originally Posted by fatbillybob View Post
    I think the best thing about an EV future is less noise. A continual threat to our hobby is the Laguna Seca syndrome where a small minority ruin life for the majority who don't care. If the EV's are quiet, don't smell, and save the planet maybe the "fun police" will go bug someone else.
    I'm all for less noise and in the case of race tracks, most cars could stand to be quieted down. People have and/or will figure out how to make their cars quiet and competitive.

    As far as regular street cars go, it's tires that make the most noise. Yes there are some cars where you can hear the engine when it drives by but for most cars it's tires. I regularly walk my kids to school and at roughly 25-35 mph a Tesla makes as much noise driving by as a gas powered Camry. We live about 1/4 mile from the 101 and other than the occasional loud truck or motorcycle it's all tire noise.
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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red_5 View Post
    As far as regular street cars go, it's tires that make the most noise. Yes there are some cars where you can hear the engine when it drives by but for most cars it's tires. I regularly walk my kids to school and at roughly 25-35 mph a Tesla makes as much noise driving by as a gas powered Camry. We live about 1/4 mile from the 101 and other than the occasional loud truck or motorcycle it's all tire noise.
    at 25-35mph, Camry is just purring along......
    as for freeway noise (I also live close to one), it is mainly semi's tire noise and Harley.....
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    Quote Originally Posted by bellwilliam View Post
    Brenda you are wrong on this. It is moving a lot faster than you think. Most Track guys I know own an EV. It seems most Trackhq'ers own one too. We are at a point that I don't see negatives with EV any more. EV with 200+ mile range are being released in droves. Around 10 models by 2018. Over 50 by 2020.

    Heck, I am typing this in a Tesla lounge at their Hawthorne charging (free) station. Waiting to pick up my wife from Lax 10 minutes away.


    And most track guys I know don't have EVs. That's a subjective point on both our parts, so it's not really relevant.

    The negatives remain. My point is that charging takes longer than refueling and 200 miles is much shorter than the average 300 mile range of a ICE-powered car. Remember that we live in California, which is ahead of the curve on EVs. We have charging stations, but not nearly as many as we have gas stations. We are the home to Tesla. Most states don't have the infrastructure in place. There are numerous challenges involved with broad acceptance of electric vehicles.

    What happens when the tax credits go away? When charging is no longer not only free, but taxed to pay for the roads on which the cars drive? Those kinds of obstacles slow the adoption of the technology more than the technology itself.

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    There is a fallacy in the need for "fast" charging...your thinking about having to stop on your way somewhere to get "fill up"... instead every morning you get into a car with a "full tank".

    I guess I am thinking, how many times I have needed filled up a car twice in one day. <2 days a year average(?) and every time, I knew I was going to be on a road trip, plenty of time to rent for those days.

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