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Thread: The future of being a "car guy"

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    Senior Member fatbillybob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuntman View Post
    we still have quite a ways to go...
    Agreed!...And then there is autonomous car terrorism. Lots of future mischief needs to be prevented before autonomous cars are ready for prime time.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1707.08945v2.pdf

  2. #22
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    I want to make a movie where hackers hack cars and cause them to crash into each other and pedestrians as acta of terrorism. We are there now with cars like the new NSX with EPAS - no control over steering, DBW - no control over throttle, Parking brake -electronic, brakes - nsx has DBW brakes, shift setting -electronic, no control.

    Theoretically you can control all of these electronic systems remotely and do that now.. pretty scary.
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    http://www.trackhq.com/Banners/yellowsitesponsor.gif Blackbird's Avatar
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    ^ Sounds like an improvement over just a regular ol' day of driving in SFV.

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    Senior Member bikeindirt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuntman View Post
    would you still have purchased the car without the subsides?

    The whole EV thing is a hypocritical mess... Like the people that push them. But in your case, enjoy the $ saving.
    In my case it might still be worth doing even without the subsidies on the cars, but it would be less of a no brainer. The car always full/no gas station is pretty nice.

    BID

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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    I love EV. few simple reasons:

    given any ICE vs. EV for the same vehicle. say Fiat 500e, Ford Focus EV, Chevy Spark EV. EV ALWAYS have better weight distribution, lower center of gravity, better throttle response and more torque. EV always handles better than their ICE counterpart.

    people bag on Tesla S, but the fact is if I told you that you can buy a 7 seater (optional), mid engine (including battery), double wishbone suspension, lower center gravity than a 911, quieter than any Buick. better throttle response than a F1 car (or whatever engine you can think of), shifts faster than LaFerrari (because there is no gear), accelerates faster than a 991 turbo, won't you buy one ? just ignore that it is an EV for a minute.
    Last edited by bellwilliam; 08-09-2017 at 09:19 PM.
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    Senior Member Gian's Avatar
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    Being that I work for an Electric utility company. I see a lot of changes are coming. But I personaly will hold on tightly to my Dino fuel (by the way, they don't think petroleum comes from dino's these days) vehicles. What the media pushes and fear based ideas come up with.. Are not always truths. I don't think I will be around to see any major changes. But I do fee we need to teach the new or the I-gens the true smell, sound, sprit and love of combustion engine auto racing.
    That's not a Typo, I just can't spell no so well.

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    The Real Captain Slow Red_5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bellwilliam View Post
    people bag on Tesla S, but the fact is if I told you that you can buy a 7 seater (optional), mid engine (including battery), double wishbone suspension, lower center gravity than a 911, better throttle response than a F1 car (or whatever engine you can think of), shifts faster than LaFerrari (because there is no gear), accelerates faster than a 991 turbo, won't you buy one ? just ignore that it is an EV for a minute.
    People bag on the Tesla S? That's surprising to me. I think the only bad things I've heard are the price and the fit and finish aren't great for the price point.
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    If something akin to the forecast "no new cars with steering wheels sold in the U.S. in 20 years" develops - parts for 6+ year old cars are going to dry up at a surprising pace. There would be a rapidly diminishing market for used car parts for gasengine cars - mostly because of a rapid market shift.

    While its easy to look at government as possibly legislating gas engines into a corner - I would be surprised if the free market did it faster and broader.

    We are already seeing factory turbo cars that cannot deal with the heat soak that comes from track time, and the increasing number of sensors and sophisticated driver aids have caused their own issues in some circles. The latter can be expected to continue to develop rapidly in their attempt to provide a greater safety net around drivers.
    Last edited by Estoril; 08-07-2017 at 06:18 PM.

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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    What year do you think an autonomous car will go faster around a track. Assume everything else being equal: weight, power, etc..
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    Chest hair required Olitho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bellwilliam View Post
    What year do you think an autonomous car will go faster around a track. Assume everything else being equal: weight, power, etc..
    By 2030 someone will have hacks similar to Jail-Break for the best car platforms available. Those hacks and the installed code of the car will allow it to drive faster than Vettel can do it.

    The only problem with that scenario is that by that time when we have autonomous vehicles, performance cars will be quickly diminishing. Why pay for a flat-pane V8 in a car that is designed to follow every traffic law absolutely. We will only need enough power to accelerate in unison with other cars and go the maximum programmed speed which will be the prevailing speed limit. How will cars differentiate themselves in that era? I am sure body styling will still make a statement to some extent. Performance will be irrelevant. Creature comforts, size and features within the car will make some difference... but what else will cause us to buy one auto-car vs. another?

    Then there is the likely hood we won't actually own the cars... or at least many won't own cars. Uber by then will be pilotless, at least by a human. Perhaps we will be well on our way to just summoning an empty Uber to come pick us up when we need a ride? Perhaps it will be my car giving Uber rides while I am at work and not driving it. Why have a perfectly good asset sitting in the sun of the office parking lot when it can be out generating revenue?

    Some thoughts to chew on....
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    At some point, you have to separate transportation and performance driving/racing. They will no longer be related. The car guys will be part of the later. There will always be companies willing to produce performance cars, but just like dirt bikes, they will be for "closed course" only.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bellwilliam View Post
    What year do you think an autonomous car will go faster around a track. Assume everything else being equal: weight, power, etc..
    The effort began before 2011:


    https://youtu.be/a9kepmwrH5o
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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Estoril View Post
    The effort began before 2011:


    https://youtu.be/a9kepmwrH5o
    I timed it at 2:20 around Laguna Seca. The "instructor" said the mode it is running is about 10 seconds slower. That would mean 2:10
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    Jay Leno said it best "what happened to horses last century is about to happen to cars"
    Last edited by Ben22; 08-08-2017 at 07:49 AM.

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    Expect more purpose built race cars.

    Also, I expect there to be a new sport of innocuously freaking out the computer enough to get people in self driving cars to spill their coffee.

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    Master of Disaster SteveLevin's Avatar
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    Hybrids are the future.

    I don't believe that pure EV's will dominate simply because there is too much ... America.

    Are we really going going to electrify Riverton, Wyoming, a town of 10,000? This is a town we can't/won't/haven't supplied with 25mbit internet to homes, and let me tell you, that's a shedload easier than building a power grid out.

    And Byrd City, Kansas?

    And at some point real economics are going to come into play as well. Tesla is talking about borrowing another 1 and half BILLION dollars just to deal with the production of the model 3, a car they have already designed.

    And the high margin cars? The model S is getting a bit long in the tooth.

    Hybrids, on the other hand, can potentially be built at a profit, don't need an inrastructure, and can make a huge difference. As usual, if California
    had focused on results rather than methods, we not only could have a very clean and efficient fleet of cars on sale, but several years of cars in the used
    pipeline to help replace the old clunkers -- the real source of pollution of fossil fuel consumption amongst automobiles.

    There's no reason other than electric obsession that every Camry, Corolla, Cruze, Fit, Accord, etc. being sold today isn't a hybrid of some form.

    As far as autonomous, I have my doubts we can get past the life and death decisions anytime soon. It's a lot harder to make an AI system understand that it's better to kill a 50 year old man with a high likelyhood of survival over a a terrified 4 year old that is almost certainly going to burn to death.

    Steve
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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveLevin View Post
    HIt's a lot harder to make an AI system understand that it's better to kill a 50 year old man with a high likelyhood of survival over a a terrified 4 year old that is almost certainly going to burn to death.
    Steve
    hey, I am in my 50s !!!
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  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuntman View Post
    But where does the majority of electricity come from? -burning fossil fuels. Until we get a clean source of electricity, it's not really that much better to have a true EV vs. ICE, let alone a hybrid which is probably the most efficient (since the fuel burning of an ICE at sustained speeds is probably far less than the equivalent electricity pulled from the grid).
    You are right about questioning where the energy comes from (ie, fossil fuels) for our current system, but since we are going to move away from fossil fuels (whether for enviro reasons, or because other sources become cheaper -- which they eventually will), the question will become moot. Look at it this way: ICE cars always need fossil fuels. EVs do not. It is pretty clear where we are headed. So I guess the question is just when do we switch? I for one embrace our new electric overlords.
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    http://www.trackhq.com/Banners/yellowsitesponsor.gif emilio700's Avatar
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    I see the automotive aftermarket landscape changing over the next 20 years. Enthusiasts with little disposable income modify their daily drivers. They often only have one car and it gets them to work on Monday. At the other end of the scale are enthusiasts that buy cars and modify them purely for entertainment.
    The reality is that much of the aftermarket scale of economy is supported by the entry level guy. The OEM cars themselves will become less performance oriented. Who cares how the car handles if you never touch the steering wheel? Who cares how sporty your refrigerator or transportation appliance looks.

    For those that think the auto industry will not be affected in the short term, take the case of digital vs film cameras. At the end of the 90's Kodak was worth 20B and as profitable as ever, dominant in the personal camera imaging market. Less than a decade later they were bankrupt and selling all their patents to pay stockholders. The disruptive technology was digital cameras.

    The disruptive tech to the auto industry is manifold, self or semi-self driving cars, Uber/Lyft, EV's.

    I think fewer and fewer young enthusiasts will be created with each generation. The market for things like fancy light weight racing wheels will be reduced.
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