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Thread: The future of being a "car guy"

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    http://www.trackhq.com/Banners/yellowsitesponsor.gif emilio700's Avatar
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    Default The future of being a "car guy"

    I wonder what will how our entire sphere of activities will be affected by the coming, and inevitable shift towards on demand use of autonomous electric vehicles. It won't happen in 2018 but in 5 years, the automotive landscape will be quite different. In 10 years, unrecognizable to someone from 1980.

    Some random questions that come to mind

    Will manufacturers be able to afford gasoline powered enthusiast vehicles like the Ford Raptor - GT350, Mazda MX5, BMW M1, Hellcat, Alfa 4C, Ferarri 458?

    Will gas double or triple in price.

    Will gasoline powered cars be legislated out of existence in the form of exorbitant taxes?

    Will cheap track days and w2w racing be impossible to provide?

    Will so few young people become car enthusiasts that the automotive aftermarket becomes a backwater?

    Will I be able to do burn outs in the future? (the most important question)
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    Member dc2696's Avatar
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    5 years nah, I'd guess more like 25 years.

    No need to legislate anything out of existence when it'll just be cheaper or more convenient to own one of these electric/autonomous cars. y

    You wanna use the toll road? Sorry only for sparky cars with no drivers to keep things moving fast.

    I'll start to worry when the gov't makes us run cats or do any sort of compliance checks, we're still in the stone age in that regard.
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    speak for some noobs like me.
    I think one example is FRS. It's not a fast car from factory and even not as fast as some "budget sports car" in 1990s, but it's light and nimble...2700lbs is lighter than most of production sports car with tons of cargo space. Some of us, like me, still love to drive it.
    It still has advantage over some high price sports cars. There might be more and more new/used on track simply because of the price and handling.

    As for choice of a track car, a bone stock STI works for me: relatively cheaper, warranty and running 2:02 at BW13 with rs3/z2. I'm happy with that even if it has a 20 year old engine.

    I feel like HPDE is more about $$$....how fast you want to go and how much you want to spend and what kind of car you prefer.
    VA(15) STI/FRS

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    I think in larger metropolitan areas there will be very attractive options via autonomous cars to the point where it where owning a car will not be required. I could see many companies like Amazon, your local grocery stores, employers, and even local bars having autonomous cars to provide delivery service and pick up services.

    To me, all that savings in gas just means more money for gas guzzling cars to play with in my spare time.

    However, I think it will take much longer for middle America to adapt to this new wave of transportation technology.

    We do owe it to ourselves and to all the niche markets that fall under the automotive industry umbrella to remind younger generations that driving is actually fun.

    I think gas will remain cheap for years to come because of the increased competition and lower demand, baring any punitive taxes from governments, which I'm sure the industry giants will fight with their deep pockets.
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    Chest hair required Olitho's Avatar
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    What happens when the computers and software are so good the cars lap faster in autonomous mode than with Hamilton or Vettel at the wheel?

    Will track days and racing be dead then, or will the wheel pass over to the coders for 3,000 lb bot racing?
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    If you take the human element out of racing, it will be boring, and people will stop watching.
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    2:00.01 @ CVR CW - 9/28/13 (350whp, RS3)
    1:48.22 @ ACS - 11/23/13 (400whp, RS3)

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    Big epa restrictions coming up within 10 years, which will drive small displacement with MASSIVE cats and hybrid systems. Will be interesting for sure. I'm banking on sports cars and enthusiast vehicles will greatly go up in value.

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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuntman View Post
    sports cars and enthusiast vehicles will greatly go up in value.
    the lies we tell our wives to buy our toys !!!
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    I think the best analogy that I have heard for the future of cars is to look at the use of horses from before cars were primary transportation to now. People still use horses for where it's practical but people also keep and use horses for sport.
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    Senior Member bikeindirt's Avatar
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    The future is now,,,(for some of us)

    Over the last 3 years, my "household averaged" ~24500 miles ~600 burning fossil fuels... (Total is 74,500, 1900 using fossil fuels). This year will be even more EV miles, and could be basically zero fossil fuel miles.

    I truly enjoy the efficiency. (mostly the money, but also the energy),, I am just a different kind of “car guy” than I used to be.

    When “self-driving” gets here I will enjoy the efficiency that happens with my “time”.

    BID

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    Quote Originally Posted by bikeindirt View Post
    The future is now,,,(for some of us)

    Over the last 3 years, my "household averaged" ~24500 miles ~600 burning fossil fuels... (Total is 74,500, 1900 using fossil fuels). This year will be even more EV miles, and could be basically zero fossil fuel miles.

    I truly enjoy the efficiency. (mostly the money, but also the energy),, I am just a different kind of “car guy” than I used to be.

    When “self-driving” gets here I will enjoy the efficiency that happens with my “time”.

    BID
    And please quantify the pollution produced from making those batteries and electricity?

    I do feel hybrids have a lot of merit -recouping wasted braking energy and assisting in the most inefficient aspect of an ICE motor -acceleration from a stop.
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    Senior Member bikeindirt's Avatar
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    The "efficiency" I enjoy is completely in my own little sphere, not a globally thing,,, I am not doing this to save the planet, I don't care. Anyone that knows me, knows I am all about me.

    ....or the money the Fed/State gave me for the car.... or how about the money for the solar on my roof... LOL

    BID
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    RaceTape Ninja Force McCocken's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=emilio700;150892]I wonder what will how our entire sphere of activities will be affected by the coming, and inevitable shift towards on demand use of autonomous electric vehicles. It won't happen in 2018 but in 5 years, the automotive landscape will be quite different. In 10 years, unrecognizable to someone from 1980.

    Some random questions that come to mind

    Quote Originally Posted by emilio700 View Post
    Will manufacturers be able to afford gasoline powered enthusiast vehicles like the Ford Raptor - GT350, Mazda MX5, BMW M1, Hellcat, Alfa 4C, Ferarri 458?
    This will depend on generational culture and influence. The iGeneration will be the scale tip, I believe.

    Quote Originally Posted by emilio700 View Post
    Will gas double or triple in price.
    Gas prices should decrease as demand does, but with any cartel, there will always be methods to increase profits.

    Quote Originally Posted by emilio700 View Post
    Will gasoline powered cars be legislated out of existence in the form of exorbitant taxes?
    I think this is more likely, but it will depend on legislature, influence of lobby groups, and how fast the replacing tech advances. Sort of like Japan's older car taxes and requirements for public use.

    Quote Originally Posted by emilio700 View Post
    Will cheap track days and w2w racing be impossible to provide?
    So many tracks are fighting encroaching residential additions, despite having been located at their locations for decades (LSR, RA, etc.), I think some will be forced to close. Others are finding ways to add events to increase revenue (like some NASCAR tracks). I think competition for HPDEs is heating up, but I don't know how long that will last. I think younger generations are coming to them more than my generation (X) was at that age, but they expect more in return.

    Quote Originally Posted by emilio700 View Post
    Will so few young people become car enthusiasts that the automotive aftermarket becomes a backwater?
    I think this will vary from state to state until there is a tipping point when the ends won't justify the means. Horse whips, you know?

    Quote Originally Posted by emilio700 View Post
    Will I be able to do burn outs in the future? (the most important question)
    You will be dragged from your car by young people tired of your shenanigans and shamed until you are forced to move into the desert where you will live your life in a quasi-hermit existence, closely resembling Max Rockatasky.
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    Senior Member bellwilliam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bikeindirt View Post
    The "efficiency" I enjoy is completely in my own little sphere, not a globally thing,,, I am not doing this to save the planet, I don't care. Anyone that knows me, knows I am all about me.

    ....or the money the Fed/State gave me for the car.... or how about the money for the solar on my roof... LOL

    BID
    when I had 4 EVs, BID was still with his big ass pick up truck and enclosed trailer racing a Miata.... he is all EV now, and I just bought a Mustang.....
    Last edited by bellwilliam; 08-07-2017 at 11:25 AM.
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    I could see a spec hybrid series where teams are given X amount of fuel and kW, then compete in endurance races. That could be fun.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bikeindirt View Post
    The "efficiency" I enjoy is completely in my own little sphere, not a globally thing,,, I am not doing this to save the planet, I don't care. Anyone that knows me, knows I am all about me.

    ....or the money the Fed/State gave me for the car.... or how about the money for the solar on my roof... LOL

    BID
    would you still have purchased the car without the subsides?

    The whole EV thing is a hypocritical mess... Like the people that push them. But in your case, enjoy the $ saving.

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    They can have my last ICE car when they pry my cold dead hands from the steering wheel - and, hopefully the shifter knob.

    Of course, I was born in the first half of the last century, so most of you will have much warmer hands for a much longer time; and the question is far more complicated.
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    IMHO, high performance hybrid sports car development is a waste of time, since pure EV is the end game. Manufacturers are realizing this. LMP1 is dead, drivetrains are too costly and complicated, and rules are too prescriptive (like F1) so there's usually just one competitive PU concept that all teams must implement.

    Two out of 4 engine manufacturers in F1 remain non competitive in the 4th year of the current formula, and the sport's popularity will surely sink further when Alonso/Ham/Vet retire. Liberty media needs a miracle to reverse the trend. Also possible they have their hands tied until most TV contracts expire. But then it might be too late..

    Formula E is not very exciting at the moment but it's the right arena for manufacturers to be at the moment IMHO. Not surprised to see Mercedes pull out of DTM to go into FE. Better return on R&D dollars as industry transitions to EVs.

    I'd gladly stick with NA until EV sports cars are ready for mass consumption. Would be OK skipping the turbo/hybrid era


    PS: WRC should move to pure EV power in 202x. Swap batteries every other stage.

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    I think gas infrastructure will crumble as EV takes over. But that's OK. We can make alcohol in our bathtubs and suck natural gas from our fireplaces and convert ICE will little trouble.
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    But where does the majority of electricity come from? -burning fossil fuels. Until we get a clean source of electricity, it's not really that much better to have a true EV vs. ICE, let alone a hybrid which is probably the most efficient (since the fuel burning of an ICE at sustained speeds is probably far less than the equivalent electricity pulled from the grid).

    EV will be delayed until battery technology gets to the certain point of size, weight, manufacturing, price, and performance -but that development is happening quite quickly, we still have quite a ways to go...

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